BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Coastal California: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Meadowlark In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Coastal California is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Coastal California is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0023
20279.80.0022
20289.20.0021
20298.50.0021
20307.90.0020

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RiovistaCALIFORNIA1362025
AtwaterCALIFORNIA1222012
VentucopaCALIFORNIA752002
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA541988
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA452025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA452025
AthloneCALIFORNIA442007
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA382024
MorenoCALIFORNIA342025
LivermoreCALIFORNIA311991
OnoCALIFORNIA292012
CordovaCALIFORNIA291981
PowayCALIFORNIA271980
MaricopaCALIFORNIA272025
ReddingCALIFORNIA271983
OrlandCALIFORNIA242022
ShafterCALIFORNIA231989
JacksonCALIFORNIA231992
South LakeCALIFORNIA232006
Anza 2CALIFORNIA222025
TracyCALIFORNIA222009
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA222024
AuburnCALIFORNIA211980
TranquillityCALIFORNIA212024
JofeganCALIFORNIA202023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.