BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.4
20260.000.005.4
20270.000.005.4
20280.000.005.4
20290.000.005.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College SpgsIOWA672004
Cedar ValleyIOWA521997
BolckowMISSOURI501992
TarkioMISSOURI481989
HamiltonMISSOURI271985
College Spgs 2IOWA252023
MurdockNEBRASKA202024
BedfordIOWA192018
WalesIOWA162018
WashtaIOWA162014
Ash CreekMINNESOTA152019
DinsdaleIOWA142024
SenecaKANSAS142022
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
ElmoMISSOURI122023
ThurstonNEBRASKA92024
MonticelloILLINOIS82024
LyonsNEBRASKA82024
BrooklynIOWA72022
GazaIOWA72023
Rock ValleyIOWA72019
AtkinsonILLINOIS62024
WilliamsfldILLINOIS62019
WabashINDIANA62005
Mill CreekILLINOIS52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.