BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.005.4
20270.000.005.4
20280.000.005.4
20290.000.005.4
20300.000.005.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College SpgsIOWA672004
Cedar ValleyIOWA521997
BolckowMISSOURI501992
TarkioMISSOURI481989
WalesIOWA272025
HamiltonMISSOURI271985
PiersonIOWA232025
College Spgs 2IOWA192025
DinsdaleIOWA162025
SenecaKANSAS142022
LyonsNEBRASKA142025
BedfordIOWA132025
Ash CreekMINNESOTA132025
MurdockNEBRASKA132025
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
Gretna 2NEBRASKA112025
ThurstonNEBRASKA82025
Rock ValleyIOWA72019
AtkinsonILLINOIS62024
WilliamsfldILLINOIS62019
Troy GroveILLINOIS62025
WabashINDIANA62005
NeolaIOWA62025
TiptonIOWA62025
HumboldtNEBRASKA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.