BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.16 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.16 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.002.1
20210.000.002.1
20220.000.002.1
20230.000.002.1
20240.000.002.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lone OakTEXAS161973
Miller GroveTEXAS81987
GrafordTEXAS62019
TatumsOKLAHOMA52009
DuncanOKLAHOMA42017
GauseTEXAS41977
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA31999
ChoctawOKLAHOMA31993
Peach CreekTEXAS31968
HenriettaTEXAS32018
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA21972
OakwoodTEXAS21967
Glen RoseTEXAS22019
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22016
LocoOKLAHOMA11978
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12005
BeggsOKLAHOMA11967
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11969
HeyburnOKLAHOMA11995
Oak GroveTEXAS11988
DallasTEXAS11973
SeldenTEXAS11970
AlbanyTEXAS12012
SadlerTEXAS11979
RhomeTEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.