BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 52 (95% range 25–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 52 (95% range 25–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025562983
2026552882
2027542781
2028532680
2029522579

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArthurNEBRASKA3492024
CovertKANSAS2672024
BrownleeNEBRASKA2652024
HaysKANSAS2452014
MullenNEBRASKA2402023
Swan LakeNEBRASKA1982023
GordonNEBRASKA1952024
BartlettNEBRASKA1881976
RinggoldNEBRASKA1852024
GrayKANSAS1692019
Piester LakeNEBRASKA1682024
StrattonNEBRASKA1632024
SumnerNEBRASKA1582024
JewellKANSAS1572005
ChambersNEBRASKA1572023
Ash ValleyKANSAS1462019
BerwynNEBRASKA1352010
Beloit 2KANSAS1342018
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA1302021
BeaverOKLAHOMA1302018
BeloitKANSAS1252003
RexfordKANSAS1252024
NenzelNEBRASKA1172024
DamarKANSAS1142016
MaxwellNEBRASKA1132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.