BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 51 (95% range 24–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 51 (95% range 24–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026552882
2027542781
2028532680
2029522579
2030512478

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArthurNEBRASKA3462025
CovertKANSAS2732025
Swan LakeNEBRASKA2562025
HaysKANSAS2452014
MullenNEBRASKA2402023
BartlettNEBRASKA1881976
GordonNEBRASKA1842025
BrownleeNEBRASKA1702025
GrayKANSAS1692019
JewellKANSAS1572005
RinggoldNEBRASKA1572025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA1492025
SumnerNEBRASKA1472025
Ash ValleyKANSAS1462019
Piester LakeNEBRASKA1392025
BerwynNEBRASKA1352010
Beloit 2KANSAS1342018
BeaverOKLAHOMA1302018
MaxwellNEBRASKA1282025
BeloitKANSAS1252003
StrattonNEBRASKA1212025
NenzelNEBRASKA1192025
DamarKANSAS1142016
CulbertsonNEBRASKA1122025
LeovilleKANSAS1102018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.