BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 100 (95% range 59–140). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
59–14095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 100 (95% range 59–140). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510564145
202610363144
202710262143
202810161142
202910059140

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mica ButteCOLORADO4441987
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA3372024
HookerOKLAHOMA2932024
MarslandNEBRASKA2762021
KarvalCOLORADO2742019
Agate 2NEBRASKA2602024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO2522024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO2491997
PinneoCOLORADO2322019
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA2182024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO2142024
BennettCOLORADO2012018
WinonaKANSAS1982018
LimonCOLORADO1952024
RockportCOLORADO1832024
SkellytownTEXAS1822024
AgateNEBRASKA1812001
RatonNEW-MEXICO1811994
PantexTEXAS1792024
AbarrCOLORADO1782024
TexlineTEXAS1752024
AmherstCOLORADO1722024
ChugwaterWYOMING1712024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO1692024
CrawfordNEBRASKA1642024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.