BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 99 (95% range 59–139). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
59–13995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 99 (95% range 59–139). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610463144
202710362143
202810161142
202910060140
20309959139

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mica ButteCOLORADO4441987
Wildhorse LCOLORADO3122025
MarslandNEBRASKA2762021
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO2491997
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO2432025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA2362025
HookerOKLAHOMA2342025
BereaNEBRASKA2272025
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA2162025
CampoCOLORADO2112025
Last Chance 2COLORADO2002025
WinonaKANSAS1982018
HudsonCOLORADO1842025
RockportCOLORADO1832024
TexlineTEXAS1822025
AgateNEBRASKA1812001
RatonNEW-MEXICO1811994
PinneoCOLORADO1792025
AbarrCOLORADO1782024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO1742025
AmherstCOLORADO1722024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO1722025
ChugwaterWYOMING1712024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO1672025
Adams Co.COLORADO1632022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.