BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 207 in 2024 to a central estimate of 154 (95% range 104–204). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
104–20495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 207 in 2024 to a central estimate of 154 (95% range 104–204). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159108209
2026157107207
2027156106206
2028155105205
2029154104204

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WyarnoWYOMING5602024
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA5242024
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA4542024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA4392024
Wheat BasinMONTANA4232024
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA4032024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA3832023
ShawneeWYOMING3682024
ArvadaWYOMING3672024
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING3612024
UptonWYOMING3562024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA3492024
NewcastleWYOMING3492024
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA3392024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA3352023
BrandenbergMONTANA3282019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA3242024
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA3192023
BucknumWYOMING3152024
IngomarMONTANA3142024
LocateMONTANA3052024
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA2982023
MeadowdaleWYOMING2972019
Custer 2MONTANA2902024
PowdervilleMONTANA2852024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.