BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 201 in 2025 to a central estimate of 156 (95% range 106–207). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
106–20795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 201 in 2025 to a central estimate of 156 (95% range 106–207). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160110211
2027159109210
2028158108209
2029157107208
2030156106207

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA6832025
WyarnoWYOMING6402025
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA5972025
Wheat BasinMONTANA5642025
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA5242024
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA5072025
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA5032025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA4552025
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA4392024
IngomarMONTANA3752025
Miles CityMONTANA3592025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA3372025
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA3152025
BucknumWYOMING3152024
LocateMONTANA2872025
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING2772025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA2752025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA2742025
Custer 2MONTANA2672025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA2622004
AlbionMONTANA2472025
Hehn DrawMONTANA2472025
CusterMONTANA2452022
Cabin CreekMONTANA2372025
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA2352025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.