BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
218Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0025
2026120.0025
2027120.0024
2028110.0024
2029110.0024

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaoniaCOLORADO1422024
BrookhurstWYOMING1212022
Fletcher PkWYOMING1132024
Sybille CynWYOMING1022024
De BequeCOLORADO902024
Wilson CreekCOLORADO842024
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO831987
FruitaCOLORADO772007
FalfaCOLORADO752024
PecosNEW-MEXICO712017
AztecNEW-MEXICO711989
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO642024
AlamosaCOLORADO622024
Mt TrumbullARIZONA611993
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO612021
DinosaurCOLORADO612024
WestcliffeCOLORADO612024
CapulinNEW-MEXICO581994
VernalUTAH552018
YampaCOLORADO532023
MesitaCOLORADO472024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO452024
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO431999
JensenUTAH432024
BasinCOLORADO422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.