BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+101%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Western Meadowlark In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.009.9
20263.50.009.9
20273.40.009.9
20283.40.009.8
20293.40.009.8

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonCALIFORNIA362024
SattleyCALIFORNIA262024
GoumazCALIFORNIA132011
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA122024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA112023
GeneseeCALIFORNIA82024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32018
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024
RivertonCALIFORNIA22007
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12018
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11975
Silver CityCALIFORNIA11977
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12015
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11997
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA11986
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA11982
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12009
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA12006
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12004
ChilcootCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.