BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.001.3
20260.030.001.3
20270.000.001.2
20280.000.001.2
20290.000.001.2

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenbushMINNESOTA672024
WarroadMINNESOTA202024
PhillipsWISCONSIN51990
Lake CityMICHIGAN41979
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN41975
BackusMINNESOTA41996
LudeMINNESOTA42022
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN31986
Pine RiverMINNESOTA32003
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980
DebsMINNESOTA32024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN32021
Mille LacsMINNESOTA21996
FloodwoodMINNESOTA22015
Little ForkMINNESOTA22019
MahtowaMINNESOTA22008
McgregorMINNESOTA22002
BrainerdMINNESOTA22024
BayfieldWISCONSIN21998
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN22018
CavourWISCONSIN22015
OntonagonMICHIGAN11985
BerglandMICHIGAN11989
BootjackMICHIGAN11998
Ned LakeMICHIGAN11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.