BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
201Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221231
2027211231
2028211230
2029211230
2030211230

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PolsonMONTANA1842025
WorlandWYOMING1812025
AugustaMONTANA1682025
EtheteWYOMING1332025
ArmintoWYOMING1332025
RaynesfordMONTANA1292025
Wolf CreekMONTANA1282025
Malheur Res.OREGON1252023
LeoWYOMING1202025
LayCOLORADO1172025
GeboWYOMING1142025
Sand DrawWYOMING1072025
Muddy CreekMONTANA1042015
St MaryMONTANA962008
Gas Hills 2WYOMING952025
Clyde ParkMONTANA922025
MadrasOREGON882025
MeeteetseWYOMING872025
MaybellCOLORADO862025
Crane CreekIDAHO852019
Pablo Res.MONTANA822025
BridgeportOREGON782025
BoulderMONTANA762025
AlbeeOREGON742025
Church HillMONTANA712025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.