BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221231
2026211231
2027211230
2028211230
2029211130

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PolsonMONTANA2012024
LaurelMONTANA1772022
ArmintoWYOMING1552024
WorlandWYOMING1282024
Malheur Res.OREGON1252023
Wolf CreekMONTANA1232022
LayCOLORADO1222024
RaynesfordMONTANA1222024
EtheteWYOMING1142024
MaybellCOLORADO1092024
AugustaMONTANA1072024
BoulderMONTANA1062024
Muddy CreekMONTANA1042015
St MaryMONTANA962008
TensleepWYOMING932024
MadrasOREGON862024
Crane CreekIDAHO852019
Browns ParkCOLORADO822024
Fort LoganMONTANA822024
Sand DrawWYOMING822024
GeboWYOMING802024
Gas Hills 2WYOMING752024
MeeteetseWYOMING722024
OttoWYOMING702024
BeaverheadMONTANA692024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.