BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Great Basin has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.7–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.7–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.59.2
20266.94.69.3
20277.04.69.3
20287.04.79.4
20297.14.79.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallonNEVADA1262024
Glenns FerryIDAHO981986
UmatillaOREGON602023
Iron GateCALIFORNIA422019
GoshenUTAH402024
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON322024
Gardnerville 2NEVADA312024
CraneOREGON282024
OreanaNEVADA272003
PotholesWASHINGTON272023
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON272022
PocatelloIDAHO262019
Oak CityUTAH232024
NighthawkWASHINGTON222024
HattonWASHINGTON221994
RirieIDAHO212023
Cedar HillIDAHO212024
DeltaUTAH212024
Walla WallaWASHINGTON191993
LeamingtonUTAH182017
DorrisCALIFORNIA172019
Blacks CreekIDAHO172017
Mud LakeIDAHO172023
MesaWASHINGTON172008
MacdoelCALIFORNIA162019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.