BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

24×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.75.4
20263.61.75.5
20273.71.85.5
20283.71.95.6
20293.81.95.6

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS102023
La PryorTEXAS92017
El IndioTEXAS92007
KingsvilleTEXAS82024
ProgresoTEXAS72011
Agua NuevaTEXAS52019
George WestTEXAS52024
RandadoTEXAS42024
Encinal 2TEXAS42024
GuerraTEXAS32023
Mirando CityTEXAS22024
EncinalTEXAS22010
DilleyTEXAS22023
SejitaTEXAS22021
LaredoTEXAS22016
ZapataTEXAS11984
San YgnacioTEXAS11967
CatarinaTEXAS12006
HondoTEXAS12024
RaymondvilleTEXAS12024
El SauzTEXAS12015
Catarina 2TEXAS12014
Catarina 3TEXAS12023
HeidelbergTEXAS12024
Millett 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.