BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+607%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025147.420
2026147.520
2027147.620
2028147.721
2029147.821

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO512021
MesillaNEW-MEXICO472000
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO422023
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO402024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO362023
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO362019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO322024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO292024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO282024
Van HornTEXAS252024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO231977
GageNEW-MEXICO232024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO182024
Delaware CrkTEXAS182015
EngleNEW-MEXICO151989
SlaughterTEXAS152021
Bear MtnTEXAS152013
JornadaNEW-MEXICO142024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO132024
GirvinTEXAS132024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS132024
DemingNEW-MEXICO91975
ShafterTEXAS91983
OzonaTEXAS92022
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.