BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 658% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+658%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 658% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026147.320
2027147.420
2028147.520
2029147.620
2030147.721

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO512021
MesillaNEW-MEXICO472000
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO442025
GirvinTEXAS402025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO362019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO332025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO312025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO292025
Van HornTEXAS282025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO252025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO231977
Delaware CrkTEXAS182015
RodeoNEW-MEXICO152025
EngleNEW-MEXICO151989
SlaughterTEXAS152021
Bear MtnTEXAS152013
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO142025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO122025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO102025
DemingNEW-MEXICO91975
ShafterTEXAS91983
OzonaTEXAS92022
Sierra BlancTEXAS92025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS82025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.