BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.006.5
20260.170.006.2
20270.000.006.1
20280.000.006.1
20290.000.006.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McnealARIZONA162024
CutterARIZONA132014
SunizonaARIZONA91997
Skull ValleyARIZONA92024
Clay SpringARIZONA92024
PomereneARIZONA72024
San SimonARIZONA72024
DragoonARIZONA72009
PortalARIZONA52014
PinetopARIZONA42022
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO31997
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO32024
FlagstaffARIZONA22016
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22003
Carr MtnARIZONA22023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
PrescottARIZONA12022
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
BlueARIZONA11974
Peña BlancaARIZONA12018
MaineARIZONA12010
Forest LakesARIZONA12021
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
AlpineARIZONA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.