BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.006.3
20270.000.006.0
20280.000.006.0
20290.000.006.0
20300.000.006.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA172025
CutterARIZONA132014
SunizonaARIZONA91997
Skull ValleyARIZONA92024
San SimonARIZONA72024
DragoonARIZONA72009
McnealARIZONA62025
PortalARIZONA52014
PinetopARIZONA42022
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
MaineARIZONA32025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO31997
FlagstaffARIZONA22016
PomereneARIZONA22025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22003
Carr MtnARIZONA22023
PrescottARIZONA12022
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
BlueARIZONA11974
Peña BlancaARIZONA12018
Forest LakesARIZONA12021
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
AlpineARIZONA12015
RedingtonARIZONA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.