BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Coastal California has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026179.725
2027179.725
2028179.725
2029179.725
2030179.825

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AthloneCALIFORNIA1302007
OrlandCALIFORNIA752022
TranquillityCALIFORNIA652024
AtwaterCALIFORNIA622012
OnealsCALIFORNIA502024
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA462025
ReddingCALIFORNIA461983
ZamoraCALIFORNIA462025
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA462011
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA442025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA412025
TiptonCALIFORNIA401997
Red BluffCALIFORNIA372025
HughsonCALIFORNIA372025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA361997
PenningtonCALIFORNIA352025
TracyCALIFORNIA352009
ShafterCALIFORNIA341989
OrovilleCALIFORNIA342025
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA332023
JacksonCALIFORNIA301992
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA262003
VentucopaCALIFORNIA262002
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA242019
OnoCALIFORNIA222011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.