BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Coastal California has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025179.925
20261710.025
2027171025
2028171025
2029181025

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AthloneCALIFORNIA1302007
OrlandCALIFORNIA752022
TranquillityCALIFORNIA652024
AtwaterCALIFORNIA622012
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA512024
OnealsCALIFORNIA502024
ReddingCALIFORNIA461983
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA462011
ZamoraCALIFORNIA452024
TiptonCALIFORNIA401997
HughsonCALIFORNIA392024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA361997
TracyCALIFORNIA352009
ShafterCALIFORNIA341989
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA332023
JacksonCALIFORNIA301992
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA262003
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA262024
VentucopaCALIFORNIA262002
WestleyCALIFORNIA252024
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA242019
CohassetCALIFORNIA232024
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA232024
OnoCALIFORNIA222011
GlennCALIFORNIA222023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.