BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-41%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.12
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12
20290.060.000.12

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Western Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhillipsOKLAHOMA42006
AshdownARKANSAS22022
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024
MatoyOKLAHOMA22000
PocolaOKLAHOMA22016
Liberty HillTEXAS22010
MassardARKANSAS12022
BlancoOKLAHOMA11998
McalesterOKLAHOMA11978
CanadianOKLAHOMA12017
BethelOKLAHOMA12010
New WaverlyTEXAS12023
MortonTEXAS12012
Chandler 2TEXAS12008
Easton 2TEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.