BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+615%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.9–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.9–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.73.9
20262.81.83.9
20272.91.83.9
20282.91.84.0
20292.91.94.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS92024
WeatherfordTEXAS82024
CarlosTEXAS82024
GrafordTEXAS72019
DuranTEXAS71998
RhomeTEXAS62024
Thornton 2TEXAS62010
BrucevilleTEXAS62023
Massey LakeTEXAS52024
MegargelTEXAS52023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA42023
GauseTEXAS41997
Glen RoseTEXAS42024
Miller GroveTEXAS42024
FanninTEXAS41998
Thornton 3TEXAS42019
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA32018
HenriettaTEXAS32022
CayugaTEXAS32024
GreenvilleTEXAS32024
NobleOKLAHOMA22024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21974
DuncanOKLAHOMA22024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22009
Lone OakTEXAS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.