BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 673% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+673%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 673% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.73.8
20272.81.73.9
20282.81.83.9
20292.91.84.0
20302.91.84.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS182025
RhomeTEXAS92025
GrafordTEXAS72019
DuranTEXAS71998
WeatherfordTEXAS62025
Miller GroveTEXAS62025
Thornton 2TEXAS62010
CarlosTEXAS62025
Massey LakeTEXAS52025
PaigeTEXAS52025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA42023
GauseTEXAS41997
OsageTEXAS42025
FanninTEXAS41998
Blue RidgeTEXAS42025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA32025
Glen RoseTEXAS32025
HenriettaTEXAS32022
GreenvilleTEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22025
NobleOKLAHOMA22025
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21974
DuncanOKLAHOMA22024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22009
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.