BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+171%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 26–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 26–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342444
2027352545
2028352545
2029352545
2030362646

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect ValCOLORADO1722000
PlainsTEXAS1082017
ClaytonvilleTEXAS992022
HobbsNEW-MEXICO842025
LamesaTEXAS842025
PecosTEXAS832017
HudsonCOLORADO762025
FrionaTEXAS672025
Mica ButteCOLORADO651987
Frankel CityTEXAS642022
WinkTEXAS631986
KiowaCOLORADO602018
CircleTEXAS602024
TenmileTEXAS552023
KirkCOLORADO542023
DoughertyTEXAS532025
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO482025
Arsenal 2COLORADO472025
PlainsTEXAS472025
LingleWYOMING442024
ArsenalCOLORADO432015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO422025
CactusTEXAS422025
SaragosaTEXAS422025
NeegrandeCOLORADO342025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.