BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+181%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 27–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 27–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352545
2026352645
2027362645
2028362646
2029362746

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect ValCOLORADO1722000
LamesaTEXAS1352024
FrionaTEXAS1162024
PlainsTEXAS1082017
ClaytonvilleTEXAS992022
PecosTEXAS832017
DoughertyTEXAS762024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO702024
PlainsTEXAS672024
Mica ButteCOLORADO651987
Frankel CityTEXAS642022
WinkTEXAS631986
KiowaCOLORADO602018
RushCOLORADO602024
CircleTEXAS602024
TenmileTEXAS552023
HudsonCOLORADO542024
KirkCOLORADO542023
FloydadaTEXAS452024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO442023
MidlandTEXAS442024
LingleWYOMING442024
ArsenalCOLORADO432015
WakaTEXAS392024
SaragosaTEXAS362024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.