BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.44.28.6
20266.44.28.6
20276.54.38.7
20286.54.38.7
20296.64.38.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA462015
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA442024
CircleMONTANA372023
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA372015
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA312024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA292015
ForsythMONTANA252023
ArvadaWYOMING242024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA232004
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA212023
CusterMONTANA202022
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA202024
Miles CityMONTANA192024
BillWYOMING192018
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA182024
CrookstonNEBRASKA172024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA172024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA172022
BrandenbergMONTANA142019
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA142024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA142023
RedbirdWYOMING131989
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA122018
HampshireWYOMING122024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA112022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.