BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.38.6
20276.54.38.7
20286.54.38.7
20296.64.48.7
20306.64.48.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA462015
BrandenbergMONTANA412025
CircleMONTANA372023
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA372015
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA352025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA332025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA312024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA292015
ForsythMONTANA252023
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA242025
Cabin CreekMONTANA232025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA232004
Miles CityMONTANA222025
ArvadaWYOMING212025
CusterMONTANA202022
CrookstonNEBRASKA202025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA202025
BillWYOMING192018
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA172025
PowdervilleMONTANA142025
LuskWYOMING142025
RozetWYOMING142025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA132025
RedbirdWYOMING131989
DwyerWYOMING132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.