BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
184Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.23.1
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.23.0
20292.11.23.0
20302.11.23.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitaCOLORADO312007
Cortez 2COLORADO282017
KamasUTAH282025
Wellington 2UTAH272011
GreasewoodARIZONA262003
CortezCOLORADO262008
WellingtonUTAH212002
FalfaCOLORADO202025
La PlataNEW-MEXICO202013
PaoniaCOLORADO192025
Animas 2COLORADO192025
JensenUTAH192025
DoloresCOLORADO181987
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO182021
WalsenburgCOLORADO152025
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO152016
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO142025
MoscaCOLORADO132025
Rose WellsARIZONA121977
CastletonUTAH121985
FayetteUTAH112025
De BequeCOLORADO102025
LudlowCOLORADO102016
MountainairNEW-MEXICO102024
Wellington 3UTAH102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.