BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.23.1
20262.11.23.1
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.23.0
20292.11.23.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitaCOLORADO312007
Cortez 2COLORADO282017
Wellington 2UTAH272011
GreasewoodARIZONA262003
FalfaCOLORADO262024
CortezCOLORADO262008
KamasUTAH212024
WellingtonUTAH212002
La PlataNEW-MEXICO202013
Animas 2COLORADO192021
DoloresCOLORADO181987
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO182021
Wellington 3UTAH172024
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO152016
JensenUTAH142024
ShivwitzUTAH142024
PaoniaCOLORADO132024
Rose WellsARIZONA121977
WalsenburgCOLORADO122024
CastletonUTAH121985
AngoraCOLORADO112024
MoscaCOLORADO102024
LudlowCOLORADO102016
MountainairNEW-MEXICO102024
Douglas PassCOLORADO92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.