BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+27%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.001.0
20260.410.001.0
20270.410.001.0
20280.410.001.0
20290.410.001.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KernvilleCALIFORNIA172008
ChilcootCALIFORNIA92024
WawonaCALIFORNIA72024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA42016
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA32008
RivertonCALIFORNIA32002
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12005
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA11988
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11994
SattleyCALIFORNIA12024
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12001
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12011
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.