BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+17%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.001.0
20270.430.001.0
20280.430.001.0
20290.430.001.0
20300.420.001.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KernvilleCALIFORNIA172008
ChilcootCALIFORNIA92024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52025
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA42016
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA32008
RivertonCALIFORNIA32002
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22025
SattleyCALIFORNIA22025
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22023
WawonaCALIFORNIA22025
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11969
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA11988
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11994
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12001
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12011
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.