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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Gull Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Western Gull in Oregon has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-98%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Gull Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Gull has collapsed in Oregon: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Western Gull Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Western Gull in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Gull in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.0
20260.000.007.0
20270.000.007.0
20280.000.007.0
20290.000.007.0

Western Gull Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Western Gull in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wedderburn1520241970
Hauser419841972
Hazel Camp420221975
Coquille120162015
Nicolai Mtn.120172017
Glasgow120241986

Western Gull Population Trend in Other States

californiawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.