BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Western Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Gull has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.006.9
20260.280.006.8
20270.170.006.7
20280.050.006.5
20290.000.006.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA1012021
TaholahWASHINGTON472022
WedderburnOREGON152024
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA121991
Fish RockCALIFORNIA62014
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA42022
HauserOREGON41984
Hazel CampOREGON42022
HoneydewCALIFORNIA32017
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA21999
NavarroCALIFORNIA11998
GlasgowOREGON12024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON12017
CoquilleOREGON12016
Warm BeachWASHINGTON11993
Bunker HillWASHINGTON11989
IlwacoWASHINGTON12023
RaymondWASHINGTON12013
Raymond 2WASHINGTON12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.