BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 0.00–204). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–20495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 0.00–204). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025810.00209
2026800.00208
2027790.00207
2028780.00206
2029770.00204

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon LakeTEXAS5272011
MamouLOUISIANA2771982
Goliad PrairieTEXAS2362016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS2212024
Port AcresTEXAS1432024
Rock IslandTEXAS1202024
McfaddinTEXAS1122016
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA1092011
Oyster LakeTEXAS992024
BaysideTEXAS952010
StowellTEXAS942023
MauriceLOUISIANA932024
JuniorLOUISIANA901991
EstherLOUISIANA902024
Hinkles FerTEXAS872024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA862024
HackberryLOUISIANA832016
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA802019
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA622024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA522021
DanburyTEXAS492024
KaplanLOUISIANA462023
RichardLOUISIANA462024
WinnieTEXAS442024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.