BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-27%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.80.0022
20268.80.0022
20278.90.0022
20288.90.0022
20299.00.0023

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS1272011
George WestTEXAS482024
Catarina 3TEXAS182018
GuerraTEXAS162009
KingsvilleTEXAS122019
Mirando CityTEXAS82009
RaymondvilleTEXAS72024
Millett 2TEXAS72024
RandadoTEXAS61994
La PryorTEXAS62017
Agua NuevaTEXAS42005
EncinalTEXAS42004
HondoTEXAS42018
DilleyTEXAS42021
LaredoTEXAS42010
CatarinaTEXAS32010
MillettTEXAS32004
HeidelbergTEXAS22024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22009
RachalTEXAS12008
Encinal 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.