BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-32%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 445% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+445%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 445% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.30.0022
20278.30.0022
20288.40.0022
20298.40.0022
20308.40.0022

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS1272011
George WestTEXAS482024
Catarina 3TEXAS182018
GuerraTEXAS162009
KingsvilleTEXAS122019
RaymondvilleTEXAS122025
Mirando CityTEXAS82009
Millett 2TEXAS72024
RandadoTEXAS61994
La PryorTEXAS62017
Encinal 2TEXAS52025
Agua NuevaTEXAS42005
EncinalTEXAS42004
HondoTEXAS42018
DilleyTEXAS42021
LaredoTEXAS42010
CatarinaTEXAS32010
MillettTEXAS32004
HeidelbergTEXAS22024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22009
RachalTEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.