BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-79%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5994.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5994.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5994.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.0019
20263.70.0019
20273.50.0019
20283.40.0019
20293.20.0019

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA2402012
Palo VerdeARIZONA802008
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA182017
NilandCALIFORNIA92023
ArabyARIZONA32018
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA32022
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA32015
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA32010
LagunaARIZONA22013
Hope 2ARIZONA22017
Lone PineCALIFORNIA21994
VicksburgARIZONA11988
DatelandARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.