BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+155%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.001.0
20270.020.001.00
20280.010.000.98
20290.000.000.98
20300.000.000.98

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvinCALIFORNIA132015
ZamoraCALIFORNIA92008
OrlandCALIFORNIA82013
TranquillityCALIFORNIA82001
AtwaterCALIFORNIA42003
WestleyCALIFORNIA42005
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA32025
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA22004
San YsidroCALIFORNIA21992
HollisterCALIFORNIA21993
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22000
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA21996
PenningtonCALIFORNIA11990
MorenoCALIFORNIA11982
Mark WestCALIFORNIA12025
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.