BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+256%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Coastal California: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Western Cattle-Egret In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.160.001.1
20180.140.001.1
20190.130.001.1
20200.110.001.1
20210.100.001.1

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvinCALIFORNIA132015
ZamoraCALIFORNIA92008
OrlandCALIFORNIA82013
TranquillityCALIFORNIA82001
AtwaterCALIFORNIA42003
WestleyCALIFORNIA42005
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA22004
San YsidroCALIFORNIA21992
HollisterCALIFORNIA21993
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22000
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA21996
PenningtonCALIFORNIA11990
MorenoCALIFORNIA11982
Mark WestCALIFORNIA12016
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.