BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+52%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±555.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±555.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±555.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.17
20270.050.000.17
20280.050.000.17
20290.050.000.17
20300.050.000.16

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuntersvilleALABAMA222002
KymulgaALABAMA172025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA122000
JasperALABAMA121998
Pine GroveALABAMA82008
ChildersburgALABAMA81999
Smyer LakeALABAMA51999
Mt OliveALABAMA51992
GreensportALABAMA32024
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA31981
TradeALABAMA21996
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE22000
TalladegaALABAMA12017
RiversideALABAMA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.