BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

19×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Cattle-Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 8.4–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 8.4–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025317.254
2026317.554
2027317.855
2028328.155
2029328.455

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA1702024
River RoadLOUISIANA1372024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA1081986
FrogmoreLOUISIANA982024
KeystoneLOUISIANA622013
MayflowerLOUISIANA532024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA512024
Port AllenLOUISIANA472024
RayvilleLOUISIANA452008
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI432024
CarlisleLOUISIANA421988
CommerceMISSISSIPPI421993
KraemerLOUISIANA392024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI391994
BerwickLOUISIANA372018
GillettARKANSAS302016
BrousvilleLOUISIANA222024
WilsonARKANSAS211996
ShawLOUISIANA212024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI212024
LaroseLOUISIANA181992
South BendARKANSAS172023
BelairLOUISIANA152024
EudoraARKANSAS132016
DelhiLOUISIANA132021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.