BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

17×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Cattle-Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 7.3–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 7.3–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026306.353
2027306.654
2028306.854
2029317.154
2030317.354

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA1422025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA1252025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA1081986
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI712025
KeystoneLOUISIANA622013
River RoadLOUISIANA582025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI522025
Port AllenLOUISIANA472024
RayvilleLOUISIANA452008
CarlisleLOUISIANA421988
CommerceMISSISSIPPI421993
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI391994
BerwickLOUISIANA372018
GillettARKANSAS302016
KraemerLOUISIANA282025
WilsonARKANSAS211996
ShawLOUISIANA212024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA212025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA212025
LaroseLOUISIANA181992
South BendARKANSAS172023
BelairLOUISIANA152025
DelhiLOUISIANA132021
KelsoARKANSAS122010
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI122021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.