BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

33×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.80.0013
20264.90.0013
20274.90.0013
20284.90.0013
20294.90.0013

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JetOKLAHOMA2952024
ElginOKLAHOMA1622016
RandlettOKLAHOMA1282003
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA1032013
VerdenOKLAHOMA802017
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA522009
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA452018
CookietownOKLAHOMA382002
AlbertKANSAS352019
BerwetKANSAS192022
DouglasOKLAHOMA192013
HawleyTEXAS192009
WilliamsTEXAS192007
WeinertTEXAS171993
KanopolisKANSAS162003
SurpriseNEBRASKA161995
BelvidereNEBRASKA151997
CoopertonOKLAHOMA142022
CharlieTEXAS142017
SolomonKANSAS122008
SumnerNEBRASKA121996
BassettNEBRASKA122018
PhrosoOKLAHOMA122009
HaskellTEXAS92024
HaysKANSAS82001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.