BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+99%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Western Cattle-Egret In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±300.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.001.5
20270.650.001.5
20280.670.001.5
20290.680.001.5
20300.700.001.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwichellTEXAS912025
FrionaTEXAS402017
ClaytonvilleTEXAS232022
PantexTEXAS92025
CircleTEXAS72018
PostTEXAS62019
PanhandleTEXAS62022
LamesaTEXAS42022
WakaTEXAS42024
ChanningTEXAS21999
FloydadaTEXAS22017
YoderWYOMING22016
PaxtonNEBRASKA11993
HookerOKLAHOMA12015
DoughertyTEXAS12018
PlainsTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.