BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Warbling Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Warbling Vireo In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.25–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.25–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.780.261.3
20270.780.261.3
20280.780.261.3
20290.780.251.3
20300.770.251.3

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South BendARKANSAS62025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62019
HughesARKANSAS42023
DeventerMISSOURI42025
PawpawTENNESSEE42010
UlmARKANSAS31990
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE32025
SaffellARKANSAS22010
KelsoARKANSAS22011
WilsonARKANSAS22016
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA22005
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI21998
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22025
HarrisburgARKANSAS11967
MaynardARKANSAS12001
GillettARKANSAS12025
BardwellKENTUCKY12003
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12025
ShawLOUISIANA12010
River RoadLOUISIANA12002
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11966
TippoMISSISSIPPI11997
BlodgettMISSOURI12025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.