BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.85.9
20273.91.85.9
20283.91.96.0
20294.01.96.0
20304.01.96.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoskeeWYOMING442001
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA362025
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA342025
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA332013
Moskee 2WYOMING332021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA322012
SundanceWYOMING312025
Moskee 3WYOMING312025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA281991
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA162025
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA122017
Maynard CouleeMONTANA112025
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA112002
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA82021
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
ForsythMONTANA62023
Reed PointMONTANA52025
HighwoodMONTANA42025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42025
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA32023
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA31975
MeadowdaleWYOMING31995
Two DotMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.