BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.0–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.0–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.95.9
20263.91.96.0
20274.01.96.0
20284.02.06.1
20294.12.06.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoskeeWYOMING442001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA332013
Moskee 2WYOMING332021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA322012
Moskee 3WYOMING322024
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA281991
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA232024
SundanceWYOMING222024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA202018
Maynard CouleeMONTANA152024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA152024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA122017
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA112002
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA82021
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA82022
HighwoodMONTANA72024
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
ForsythMONTANA62023
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52024
Reed PointMONTANA42024
WebsterMONTANA32003
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA32023
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA31975
DaytonWYOMING32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.