BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+225%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.84.07.6
20275.84.07.6
20285.94.17.7
20295.94.17.7
20306.04.27.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK362025
NaplesNEW-YORK262025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK232025
WatertownNEW-YORK232012
CastileNEW-YORK192025
NashvilleNEW-YORK172018
DuanesburgNEW-YORK142025
ByronNEW-YORK142025
PulaskiNEW-YORK142025
HinesburgVERMONT131994
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK122025
BalmatNEW-YORK122008
Harris HillNEW-YORK122025
CrescentNEW-YORK112024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK102025
OneidaNEW-YORK102010
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA102025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK92025
North EastonNEW-YORK92025
West BangorNEW-YORK91999
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK92025
PittsfieldOHIO82024
CayugaNEW-YORK72025
OrleansNEW-YORK72025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.