BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+197%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.97.4
20265.73.97.4
20275.73.97.5
20285.74.07.5
20295.84.07.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA242023
WatertownNEW-YORK232012
CastileNEW-YORK192024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK192024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK182024
NashvilleNEW-YORK172018
OrleansNEW-YORK152024
MacdougallNEW-YORK132024
ByronNEW-YORK132024
HinesburgVERMONT131994
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK122024
SalemNEW-YORK122024
BalmatNEW-YORK122008
CayugaNEW-YORK112024
CrescentNEW-YORK112024
OneidaNEW-YORK102010
RushvilleNEW-YORK92024
West BangorNEW-YORK91999
PulaskiNEW-YORK82024
NaplesNEW-YORK82024
PittsfieldOHIO82024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA82024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK61995
E YoungstownNEW-YORK62023
N Victory 2NEW-YORK62021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.