BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Virginia's Warbler In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in Great Basin has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+92%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia's Warbler in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Virginia's Warbler In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±349.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±349.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±349.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.13
20270.060.000.13
20280.060.000.14
20290.070.000.14
20300.070.000.14

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AustinNEVADA152018
Comins LakeNEVADA62016
NewcastleUTAH52025
AlmoIDAHO22023
Meadow VallyNEVADA22024
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12022
Magic MtnIDAHO12005
WillisNEVADA12007
JarbidgeNEVADA12009
Oak CityUTAH12023
GoshenUTAH12010
Hardware RanchUTAH12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.