BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-82%Since 1980
3Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Virginia's Warbler has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±213.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3095% range
±213.2%Backtest error
19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.080.000.32
20260.080.000.32
20270.070.000.31
20280.070.000.30
20290.060.000.30

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22013
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12024
PinonNEW-MEXICO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.