BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia's Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 336% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+336%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 336% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.007.9
20261.90.007.8
20271.80.007.7
20281.80.007.6
20291.70.007.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA192022
PomereneARIZONA172004
Aztec PeakARIZONA101978
Mt. GrahamARIZONA102023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA72021
Skull ValleyARIZONA32011
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO32008
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32024
BlueARIZONA21991
SunizonaARIZONA21996
Forest LakesARIZONA22024
FlagstaffARIZONA11991
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
WilliamsARIZONA12018
MaineARIZONA11997
AlpineARIZONA12018
Happy JackARIZONA12022
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
SprucedaleARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12024
RuckerARIZONA11997
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.