BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Virginia's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia's Warbler has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Virginia's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.02.5
20261.81.02.5
20271.81.02.5
20281.81.12.5
20291.81.12.6

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Virginia's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO402024
Baxter PassCOLORADO352024
Douglas PassCOLORADO242024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO212024
AngoraCOLORADO192024
GallinasNEW-MEXICO172021
NuclaCOLORADO122024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO122023
BufordCOLORADO102024
Wilson CreekCOLORADO102024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO102002
LudlowCOLORADO92016
Beck 2UTAH92018
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO82019
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO82024
DeltaCOLORADO72021
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO72024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO62024
RosevaleCOLORADO62023
CokedaleCOLORADO62024
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO62024
Dolores RivCOLORADO52024
Marshall PasCOLORADO52002
Cortez 2COLORADO52017
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO51999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.