BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-72%Since 1973
20Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Violet-green Swallow has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028
0.00Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.6395% range
±186.5%Backtest error
19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.000.000.63
20250.000.000.63
20260.000.000.63
20270.000.000.63
20280.000.000.63

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
LagunaARIZONA171986
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA161986
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32016
FlorenceARIZONA21988
RivieraARIZONA22007
Organ PipeARIZONA22003
Lone PineCALIFORNIA22004
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22023
NelsonNEVADA21997
Ash MeadowsNEVADA21995
AntaresARIZONA12014
Casa GrandeARIZONA11992
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA11997
OnyxCALIFORNIA11992
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA12004
IvanpahCALIFORNIA12007
NilandCALIFORNIA11974
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA12018
Val Of FireNEVADA12005
Jean LakeNEVADA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.