BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+176%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Violet-green Swallow has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Violet-green Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±235.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.001.3
20260.020.001.3
20270.010.001.3
20280.000.001.3
20290.000.001.3

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO2931997
ElbertCOLORADO142024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA92024
Pine BluffWYOMING42022
NinaviewCOLORADO22004
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO21976
KiowaCOLORADO12016
TrincheraCOLORADO12014
VillegreenCOLORADO12007
Kiowa 2COLORADO12024
TimpasCOLORADO11998
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12017
CrawfordNEBRASKA12016
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12018
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12016
ChugwaterWYOMING12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.