BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Violet-green Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.35–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.35–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.302.2
20271.30.312.3
20281.30.332.3
20291.30.342.3
20301.30.352.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoskeeWYOMING512001
KayceeWYOMING282025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA251991
Moskee 2WYOMING222021
St XavierMONTANA182010
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA142025
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA142018
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
Moskee 3WYOMING112024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
MeadowdaleWYOMING72025
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
Maynard CouleeMONTANA52024
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA52017
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52017
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA52001
ArvadaWYOMING52012
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING52018
JordanMONTANA42018
Bull Mtn.MONTANA42021
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA31999
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.