BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
186Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.56.7
20274.11.56.8
20284.21.56.8
20294.21.56.8
20304.21.66.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuboisWYOMING512025
CusickWASHINGTON402024
NorthportWASHINGTON372025
CurlewWASHINGTON342013
Hunter PeakWYOMING322025
ChallisIDAHO312025
CoolinIDAHO302025
CentervilleIDAHO272025
CrowheartWYOMING222016
Willow Creek 2MONTANA212018
BasinWYOMING202025
E. Bear LakeUTAH192025
GoldenIDAHO172015
WoodruffUTAH172025
RandolphUTAH162024
KellerWASHINGTON152007
WilsonWYOMING152025
NezperceIDAHO142012
TwickenhamOREGON142025
ChewelahWASHINGTON142021
MammothWYOMING142025
Green RiverWYOMING121984
Hayden ValWYOMING121986
Nezperce NfIDAHO111999
YellowstoneWYOMING102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.