BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
184Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.56.8
20264.21.56.8
20274.21.66.9
20284.31.66.9
20294.31.66.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoolinIDAHO422024
CusickWASHINGTON402024
ChallisIDAHO392024
CurlewWASHINGTON342013
FontenelleWYOMING332024
DuboisWYOMING262024
Clover CreekOREGON252022
CrowheartWYOMING222016
Willow Creek 2MONTANA212018
GoldenIDAHO172015
RandolphUTAH162024
KellerWASHINGTON152007
MeeteetseWYOMING152024
NezperceIDAHO142012
ChewelahWASHINGTON142021
MooseWYOMING122024
AlpineWYOMING122024
Mtn ViewWYOMING122024
Green RiverWYOMING121984
Hayden ValWYOMING121986
Nezperce NfIDAHO111999
UnityOREGON102023
NorthportWASHINGTON102024
Ne EntranceWYOMING102019
Hunter PeakWYOMING102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.