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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Vesper Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±325.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.27
20260.000.000.27
20270.000.000.27
20280.000.000.27
20290.000.000.27

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA42005
Emigrant LkOREGON31992
Sams ValleyOREGON32013
OrleansCALIFORNIA21972
UmpquaOREGON22021
AdairOREGON21988
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22024
CanbyOREGON22005
CamasWASHINGTON21977
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11991
GazelleCALIFORNIA11989
TualatinOREGON11988
WinberryOREGON11988
ScioOREGON12024
DaytonOREGON12012
GarfieldOREGON12006
ElktonOREGON11986
GreenOREGON12024
McminnvilleOREGON12005
Port AngelesWASHINGTON11984
MendotaWASHINGTON11979
Mendota 2WASHINGTON11992
McchordWASHINGTON12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.