BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±358.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±358.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±358.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.18
20260.050.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18
20290.050.000.18

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirdsILLINOIS112010
BrazilINDIANA42017
SpencerINDIANA32021
East UnionKENTUCKY31970
YorkILLINOIS22022
BrownvilleILLINOIS22019
RoyaltonILLINOIS22008
CumbackINDIANA22004
EvansvilleINDIANA21984
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY21970
Peace ValleyMISSOURI21999
CentertownMISSOURI21978
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS12014
BremenILLINOIS12011
PimentoINDIANA12005
AzaliaINDIANA12001
WashingtonINDIANA12024
Indian SpgsINDIANA12014
Clear SpringINDIANA12009
CorydonINDIANA11996
VevayINDIANA11997
ScottsburgINDIANA11997
NewberryINDIANA12019
HustonvilleKENTUCKY11973
DixieKENTUCKY11969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.