BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968
215Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Vesper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.17–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
0.17–5.595% range
±59%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.10.415.7
20263.00.355.7
20273.00.295.6
20282.90.235.5
20292.80.175.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Cedar ValleyIOWA461997
PrairieburgIOWA272000
BudaILLINOIS242023
FairlandILLINOIS222024
SextonINDIANA182016
KentonOHIO182013
AustinMINNESOTA162023
AtkinsonILLINOIS152024
PontiacILLINOIS142024
MonticelloINDIANA132024
SheffieldILLINOIS112024
MinonkILLINOIS112024
MonticelloILLINOIS112024
GridleyILLINOIS112024
Le RoyMINNESOTA112024
EssexILLINOIS102024
Le RoyILLINOIS102024
W LafayetteINDIANA102024
MilfordILLINOIS92023
SterlingILLINOIS92023
FrontenacMINNESOTA92023
XeniaOHIO91974
NewarkILLINOIS82022
FairdaleILLINOIS82024
TiptonINDIANA81992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.