BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
215Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.17–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.17–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.415.7
20263.00.355.7
20273.00.295.6
20282.90.235.5
20292.80.175.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar ValleyIOWA461997
PrairieburgIOWA272000
BudaILLINOIS242023
FairlandILLINOIS222024
SextonINDIANA182016
KentonOHIO182013
AustinMINNESOTA162023
AtkinsonILLINOIS152024
PontiacILLINOIS142024
MonticelloINDIANA132024
SheffieldILLINOIS112024
MinonkILLINOIS112024
MonticelloILLINOIS112024
GridleyILLINOIS112024
Le RoyMINNESOTA112024
EssexILLINOIS102024
Le RoyILLINOIS102024
W LafayetteINDIANA102024
MilfordILLINOIS92023
SterlingILLINOIS92023
FrontenacMINNESOTA92023
XeniaOHIO91974
NewarkILLINOIS82022
FairdaleILLINOIS82024
TiptonINDIANA81992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.