BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.44
20260.180.000.44
20270.180.000.44
20280.180.000.44
20290.180.000.44

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelvidereNEBRASKA102024
PetersburgNEBRASKA72023
HamptonNEBRASKA52023
BartleyNEBRASKA42017
MinneapolisKANSAS31976
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32024
BookerTEXAS31977
CoatsKANSAS21972
KenesawNEBRASKA22016
HolbrookNEBRASKA21985
AlmeriaNEBRASKA22021
JohnstownNEBRASKA22016
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22017
AshlandKANSAS11983
BuckeyeKANSAS12010
SewardNEBRASKA12013
KearneyNEBRASKA12019
StrattonNEBRASKA11996
SurpriseNEBRASKA12011
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12023
GordonNEBRASKA12024
RinggoldNEBRASKA12003
BrownleeNEBRASKA12002
Liberty 2NEBRASKA12006
BerwynNEBRASKA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.