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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1236.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1236.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1236.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.49
20210.000.000.49
20220.000.000.49
20230.000.000.49
20240.000.000.49

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DebloisMAINE92007
FletcherVERMONT71985
BentonMAINE41971
NorthfieldMAINE41981
BenedictaMAINE41977
AshlandMAINE41996
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK41968
HarmonyMAINE32003
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE31971
SciotaNEW-YORK31968
East HavenVERMONT31992
BiddefordMAINE21977
Bowdoin CtrMAINE21971
CooperMAINE22005
Seboomook LkMAINE22007
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS21968
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE21971
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE21968
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE21970
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE21967
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE21970
Number FourNEW-YORK21975
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21988
GaysvilleVERMONT21978
GreensboroVERMONT22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.