Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regions Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Grassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968

78Routes In Region

58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029

0.42Projected 2029 index

0.00–1.695% range

±25.1%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% high
2025	0.53	1.8
2026	0.50	1.7
2027	0.47	1.7
2028	0.45	1.7
2029	0.42	1.6

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.

Orleans	NEW-YORK	10	2024
Byron	NEW-YORK	7	2024
Ballston Lk	NEW-YORK	4	1969
Shaftsbury	VERMONT	4	1967
Grand Isle	VERMONT	4	1987
Macdougall	NEW-YORK	3	2023
West Bangor	NEW-YORK	3	1990
Peru	OHIO	3	1978
Akeley	PENNSYLVANIA	3	1970
Austerlitz	NEW-YORK	2	2008
Cayuga	NEW-YORK	2	1996
Trumansburg	NEW-YORK	2	2002
Rushville	NEW-YORK	2	2024
Branchport	NEW-YORK	2	2000
Castile	NEW-YORK	2	2019
Randolph	NEW-YORK	2	2002
Churchville	NEW-YORK	2	2023
Penfield	NEW-YORK	2	1976
N Victory 2	NEW-YORK	2	2004
Cicero Ctr	NEW-YORK	2	1987
Balmat	NEW-YORK	2	1991
Garrettsvile	OHIO	2	1990
Strongsville	OHIO	2	1979
Herner Crns	OHIO	2	1988
New Somerset	OHIO	2	1979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.