BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968
97Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±22.4%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.001.5
20260.280.001.5
20270.220.001.4
20280.160.001.4
20290.100.001.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN182004
GreenbushMINNESOTA182024
IronsMICHIGAN101986
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN92019
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN81992
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN62024
DebsMINNESOTA62019
Union TwpWISCONSIN62024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN51996
GooseneckMICHIGAN52010
CreightonMICHIGAN32018
Cedar RunMICHIGAN31994
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN32010
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980
Little ForkMINNESOTA31973
WaskishMINNESOTA31988
MahtowaMINNESOTA32013
ChaffeyWISCONSIN31995
MinongWISCONSIN32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN21971
HermanMICHIGAN21997
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22014
WilsonMICHIGAN22010
CunardMICHIGAN22021
IsabellaMICHIGAN22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.