BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Veery In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Veery in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Veery in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Veery In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Veery in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.88–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Veery in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.88–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.04.1
20262.50.984.1
20272.50.954.1
20282.50.924.0
20292.40.884.0

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Veery in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alder CreekNEW-YORK232004
PulaskiNEW-YORK182024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK171998
AusterlitzNEW-YORK162024
ShaftsburyVERMONT162024
North EastonNEW-YORK122024
ArgyleNEW-YORK112024
West BangorNEW-YORK111999
BalmatNEW-YORK112008
BristolVERMONT112018
OneidaNEW-YORK102010
WillsboroNEW-YORK92024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA92024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82024
HinesburgVERMONT71994
Ballston LkNEW-YORK61995
N Victory 2NEW-YORK62021
OgdensburgNEW-YORK62024
CatskillsNEW-YORK52015
WatertownNEW-YORK52012
FowlerNEW-YORK51968
EllenburgNEW-YORK52006
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42022
DuanesburgNEW-YORK42024
NashvilleNEW-YORK42018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.